By B K Chum
Will the sharp dip in the US-Pakistan relations impact the situation in Jammu and Kashmir? The question gains importance as it is Kashmir and terrorism which have contributed to the deep slide in their relations. For an answer one has to have a closer look at the factors responsible for their deteriorated ties.
The cause of their latest divide was the US commandos stealthy nocturnal landing in Abotabad and returning after killing the world's most wanted terrorist Osama bin Laden hiding in a compound near the Pakistani army's centre. Like their initial denial that the 2008 Mumbai attackers were Pakistani natives, Pakistani rulers feigned ignorance about Laden's Abotabad hideout even though the later developments confirmed that they were aware of Laden and his family members presence in Pakistan.
The first indication about the US-Pakistan's growing tension was provided by the ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha's hurried 24-hour visit to Washington during which he conveyed to his American counterpart army chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's demand that US withdraw scores of CIA and special operations forces in Pakistan and halt drone raids. Pakistan later made the American trainers leave the country telling the US it did not need American trainers. The US retaliated by suspending 800 million dollar military aid to Pakistan. Pakistan responded by picking up Dr. Shakil Afridi for helping the CIA to hunt Osama bin Laden. When the US requested Afridi's release, Pakistan refused saying it was acting against its citizen who had worked for a foreign spy agency. In a tit-for-tat, the FBI last week arrested ISI agent Ghulam Nabi Fai, a US citizen, on charges of acting as ISI agent in the US without disclosing his affiliation with the Pakistani Government as required by American law. Fai has been accused of illegally funneling millions of dollars to influence US's policy on Kashmir.
Pakistan can justifiably argue that the drone attacks in its territory and raiding the Abotabad compound without its knowledge violated Pakistan's sovereignty? But was the use of its territory by Pakistan for training and sending armed terrorists to Kashmir and other parts of India to carry out terror attacks and sending army regulars to Kargil when Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif were holding peace talks in Lahore not violation of India's sovereignty? Its ISI-trained terrorists attack on Indian Parliament had even brought the two countries to the brink of war when the Vajpayee-led NDA Government retaliated by moving Indian army to Pakistan border. India again exercised restraint by not taking any punitive action against Pakistan after the ISI-sponsored terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008 killing 160 persons
If Pakistani rulers doublespeak and hypocritical actions continue, even its new mentor China will not be able to save it from further isolation in the globalised world and creating more enemies.
In the background of Pakistan's strained relations with America, coupled with international pressures against its sponsoring terrorism and India's decision to continue its dialogue with Pakistan on all issues including Kashmir, one should hope that wisdom will dawn on Pakistani rulers and they would stop sponsoring terrorist violence in India, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. The short-sighted policies of their predecessors to promote religious extremism and terrorism have produced Frankenstein who now poses a serious threat even to the integrity of Pakistan.
What impact these developments are likely to have on Jammu and Kashmir will also largely depend on the state's internal situation.
Except isolated cases of terrorist violence, the state has been experiencing relative peace and normality. Infiltrations have recorded a steep fall. The sate's summer Capital Srinagar has witnessed rush of tourists including a large number of Amarnath pilgrims. A journalist's eye witness account of his midnight drive through the city says: "When the world had gone asleep, it seemed that this city had no plans to go to sleep. The people and places were hustling with life. Tourists were eating at the roadside restaurants. Five hours earlier there was a huge traffic jam on the road and there was no sign of traffic cops. A shikara owner told me that nothing will happen this time. We suffered a lot last year and we don't want trouble this time."
The state has also witnessed positive administrative and political developments after the last summer's volatile violence. After his first two years lackluster governance, the young Chief Minister Omar Abdullah seems to have gained confidence. The people enthusiastically participated in panchayat elections. The question of empowering the panchayati raj institutions is now on Omar's agenda and he is holding on-the-spot discussions with the newly elected panchayats representatives.
Both the hardliner and softliner militants are divided with their sober elements calling their leaders to introspect and change their rigid attitude for finding solution of the state's problems. Even the pro-Pakistan Syed Ali Shah Geelani has started toning down his hardline aggressive utterances Militants ostensibly positive signs, however, do not mean that they are going to easily abandon their separatist and anti-India doctrine. The latest example is their protests against the Kashmir-born American citizen Fai's arrest by FBI. Says Geelani: "The arrest has been made on the insistence and conspiracy of India. Its aim is to weaken Kashmir's freedom movement."
These developments do not mean everything is rosy on the political front. Factionalism continues to haunt the Congress and its ruling partner National Conference as also the opposition BJP. Seven of the BJP's 11 MLAs had voted for the coalition partners in the Legislative Council's elections in April.
In Jammu and Kashmir's changed scenario, priority needs to be given to three things. One. A sustained campaign by the mainstream political parties to mobilize people against the militants ideology. Two, Speedy execution of development works. Three, Consistent efforts to provide employment avenues to the youth. A failure to do so can neutralize the advantages that can flow from the US-Pakistan's widened schism. An underestimation of alienation sentiment in the Valley can prove counter-productive. (IPA)
(www.dailyexcelsior.com, 29.07.2011)
